OnCo
bottlenecksBottleneck

The valley of death between lab and product

Most academic discoveries die before anyone tests them in people because nobody funds the middle step.

Between a validated target or lead compound in an academic laboratory and a first-in-human trial lie medicinal chemistry optimisation, GMP manufacturing, toxicology, formulation and an IND or CTA dossier, work that costs several million dollars, is not publishable, and is funded by neither research grants nor, until the asset is de-risked, by companies or venture capital. Of highly promising basic science claims published in leading journals, a small minority reach licensed use decades later. The consequence is that promising ideas stall for years or vanish, and that the ideas that do cross are selected for commercial attractiveness rather than for medical need. Public translational programmes (NCI Experimental Therapeutics, NCATS), charity drug-development units, academic-industry alliances and non-dilutive philanthropic capital exist but are small relative to the flow of discoveries.

majorfunding incentives41 ideas to fix it
How big the problem is
5 of 101; 1 in extensive use
Highly promising basic science findings (101 claims in top journals, 1979-1983) that led to a licensed clinical use within about 20 years
3.4%
Probability that an oncology drug entering phase 1 is eventually approved
Root causes
  • Research grants fund discovery, not the GMP manufacturing, toxicology and regulatory work needed to reach humans.
  • Companies and investors want assets de-risked to a stage academic labs cannot reach alone.
  • Academic incentives reward publications, not INDs, and translational work is not publishable.
  • Universities lack the specialised staff (CMC, regulatory, clinical operations) and technology transfer is slow.
  • Ideas for rare, paediatric or low-income indications have no commercial pull at any stage.
What is already being tried
  • The NCI Experimental Therapeutics (NExT) programme provides free drug development services from lead optimisation through IND-enabling studies and early trials.
  • NCATS and the Clinical and Translational Science Award hubs fund translational infrastructure at US academic centres.
  • Cancer Research UK's Centre for Drug Development and Commercial Partnerships take academic assets into phase 1 and license them onward.
  • Stand Up To Cancer Dream Teams and the Cancer Grand Challenges fund multi-institution translational teams with milestone-based awards.
  • ARPA-H funds high-risk translational programmes with active programme management.
  • Academic-industry alliances (for example, AstraZeneca's and Bayer's open innovation programmes and the Structural Genomics Consortium) share tools and compounds pre-competitively.
What breaking it looks like
Any target or lead with strong validation can access funded, professional IND-enabling development regardless of commercial attractiveness, and the median time from a validated academic discovery to first-in-human dosing falls below five years.

Ideas to fix it

41top
early clinicalindustrymedium cost
A commons of shelved cancer drugs with their full data, open to new hypotheses

Companies stop developing many drugs that were safe but did not work in the disease they tried. Sharing those drugs and their data lets others test them where they might work.

speculativeindustrylarge cost
A diversified royalty pool that finances academic phase 1 trials across fifty assets

Investors will not back a single university drug because most fail. A fund that finances fifty of them at once in exchange for a small slice of each one's future royalties spreads the risk enough to attract capital.

speculativephilanthropymedium cost
A fast IND-enabling fund that pays for toxicology and manufacturing in eight weeks

The studies needed before a first human trial cost a few million and no grant pays for them. A dedicated fund would decide in weeks and take a small share of any future revenue.

speculativephilanthropymedium cost
A fund for prospective validation of academic biomarkers and companion diagnostics

Thousands of tests that could predict who benefits from a treatment are published and never validated. A fund would pay for the boring but essential confirmation studies in independent patient groups.

preclinical evidenceresearchmedium cost
A funded organoid and PDX panel as the go/no-go gate before IND-enabling money

Before any academic compound gets money for pre-trial studies, it would have to show activity in a standard panel of patient-derived tumour models run by an independent centre, so weak candidates are stopped early.

speculativeregulatormedium cost
A global first-in-human network for academic cancer trials with single ethics review

Academic first-in-human trials recruit slowly because each hospital repeats ethics and regulatory review. A network of phase 1 units with one shared review would open trials in many countries at once.

speculativedatasmall cost
A machine-readable taxonomy of why cancer drugs fail

Drugs fail for very different reasons: the target was wrong, the drug did not reach it, the side-effects were too bad, or the trial was badly designed. Recording which reason each time would show where the system is broken.

speculativepolicylarge cost
A national non-profit contract research organisation for academic oncology trials

Running an early trial properly requires monitors, data managers, safety reporting and regulatory filings that universities cannot afford from commercial providers. A public not-for-profit would do this work at cost.

speculativephilanthropylarge cost
A non-profit pharmaceutical company for the cancers markets ignore

Build a drug company that does not need profits, modelled on the ones that developed new tuberculosis and sleeping-sickness drugs, to take on rare, paediatric and undruggable cancers.

speculativephilanthropylarge cost
A non-profit phase 1b combination unit that any drug owner can use

Build a shared, not-for-profit clinical unit that runs early combination trials to a standard recipe, so that small companies and academics can test pairs without building their own trial machinery.

early clinicalresearchmedium cost
A phase 0 fund to test academic compounds in humans with microdoses and imaging

Before investing in a full trial, give a few patients a tiny dose of a new compound and use scans and blood tests to see whether it reaches the tumour and hits its target. Fund these small studies as a matter of routine.

early clinicalclinicmedium cost
A pragmatic trial network for intraoperative margin tools, paid on margin reduction

Tools that show surgeons where the tumour ends during the operation could cut the number of patients who need a second operation, but none has been properly tested at scale. A network would run those trials and pay on results.

early clinicalindustrymedium cost
A pre-competitive consortium to validate or kill academic targets before licensing

Companies and public funders would jointly pay for standardised experiments that confirm or refute new cancer targets, sharing all results openly, so nobody wastes years on a target that does not hold up.

speculativepolicymedium cost
A public indemnity pool so universities can sponsor first-in-human cancer trials

Universities often refuse to be the legal sponsor of a first-in-human trial because they cannot afford the insurance and liability. A shared public insurance pool would remove that block.

speculativedatasmall cost
A public registry of stalled academic assets and shelved company compounds

Thousands of promising cancer compounds sit unused in university freezers and company archives. A public catalogue of what exists, what is known and who to ask would let others pick them up.

early clinicalpolicylarge cost
A public-benefit phase 1 factory that takes academic discoveries into first-in-human trials

Promising academic cancer discoveries stall because nobody funds the expensive step from lab to first human trial. Build a shared public facility that does exactly that step, repeatedly.

speculativeindustrymedium cost
A shared compound library that rare cancer researchers can actually use

Companies hold thousands of well-characterised drugs that could help rare cancers, but each request takes a year of legal negotiation. One standing agreement would unblock it.

early clinicalresearchmedium cost
A short pre-surgery drug window as the default early test of new agents

Between diagnosis and surgery there are usually a few weeks. Giving a new drug in that window and comparing the tumour before and after surgery shows whether it hits its target in real people, quickly and cheaply.

speculativephilanthropymedium cost
A translation fund for academic surgical devices and radiotherapy technology

New surgical tools, imaging probes and radiotherapy hardware invented in universities rarely attract investors. A dedicated fund would pay for prototyping, safety testing and first-in-human studies.

early clinicalresearchmedium cost
A university cyclotron network with shared regulatory files for new tracers

Most new cancer imaging agents and radioactive drugs start in university hospitals. A network sharing production, quality files and regulatory paperwork would get them into multi-centre trials years faster.

early clinicalphilanthropymedium cost
An independent replication institute that re-tests key preclinical cancer findings before trials

Many cancer lab results cannot be reproduced, and trials built on them fail. Fund an independent institute that re-runs important experiments before anyone spends millions on humans.

speculativeengineeringmedium cost
An open engineering platform for academic ADCs and bispecifics

Academic labs find new tumour targets but cannot turn an antibody into an antibody-drug conjugate or a bispecific without licensed linker and payload technology. A shared platform would provide that at no cost for first trials.

preclinical evidencephilanthropymedium cost
An open model bank for the rare tumours nobody has models for

You cannot study a cancer without a laboratory model of it, and most rare cancers have none. A funded bank that makes and shares models would unlock research.

speculativepolicysmall cost
Automatic offer of shelved cancer assets to non-profits after two years

When a company stops developing a cancer drug for business reasons, the rights and data would automatically be offered to charities and universities on set terms after two years, so promising compounds do not disappear.

speculativephilanthropymedium cost
Forty-eight-hour small grants for bold experiments in neglected cancers

Fast grants for oncology would be a fund that decides within two days on small grants for quick, decisive experiments in cancers or questions that mainstream funders neglect, modelled on the pandemic-era Fast Grants.

speculativepolicylarge cost
Government reinsurance for phase 2 failures of first-in-class cancer drugs

Investors avoid genuinely new cancer drugs because most fail in mid-stage trials. A public insurance scheme would repay part of the loss when a first-in-class drug fails honestly, making the bet worth taking.

early clinicalregulatormedium cost
Hospital-exemption cell therapies at scale, backed by a shared registry

European law already lets hospitals make advanced therapies for their own patients. Pair that with a shared outcomes registry so academic CAR-Ts and similar treatments can prove themselves without a commercial licence.

speculativeclinicmedium cost
Hospital-funded protected time for clinician-scientists, repaid by trial revenue

Doctors who could turn discoveries into trials are buried in clinical work. Hospitals would guarantee them research time and recover the cost from the trials and grants they bring in.

speculativeregulatormedium cost
Independent replication of the key experiment before first-in-human academic trials

Before a new cancer drug from a university is given to people, a separate laboratory should have repeated the main experiment showing it works.

early clinicalphilanthropylarge cost
Milestone-based venture philanthropy with royalties recycled into the pipeline

Cancer charities would fund companies to hit specific development milestones, as the cystic fibrosis charity did to create Kalydeco, and take a royalty they reinvest in the next drug.

preclinical evidencephilanthropymedium cost
Multi-centre randomised animal trials before committing to a human trial

A drug that works in one laboratory's mice often fails elsewhere. Running the key animal study across several independent laboratories first would catch this.

speculativephilanthropymedium cost
Paid independent statistical review for preclinical papers that inform trials

Clinical trials get expert statistical review; the laboratory studies that justify them usually do not. Paying statisticians to review these papers before they influence a trial would catch errors early.

early clinicalresearchmedium cost
Pet dogs with spontaneous cancer as a bridge before human trials

Dogs get cancers that closely resemble human ones, with real immune systems and years of natural history. Treating them, with owner consent, can test drugs in a way mice cannot.

early clinicalpolicylarge cost
Public cell-therapy foundries at cancer centres for academics and start-ups

Building a cell-therapy factory costs tens of millions, so most good academic ideas never reach patients. Shared public facilities would give them a route to the clinic.

speculativepolicylarge cost
Public co-investment in first-in-class phase 1 with a royalty return

A public investment fund would match private money in the riskiest early trials of truly new cancer drugs, taking a small share of future royalties so that taxpayers gain when the bets pay off.

early clinicalpolicylarge cost
Regional translational institutes with academic GMP suites and IND teams

Build a handful of publicly-funded centres where academic discoveries can be manufactured to clinical grade and written up for regulators, so good ideas do not die for lack of a factory and a filing.

early clinicalpolicylarge cost
Scale up public drug development that takes academic assets to phase 1

The US government already runs a small programme that turns academic cancer discoveries into drugs ready for human trials. Scale it up tenfold and copy it in other countries.

preclinical evidenceengineeringlarge cost
Self-driving laboratories that run the cancer biology hypothesis loop autonomously

Robotic labs guided by AI that design experiments on tumour models, run them, read the results and design the next ones, around the clock, with every result published openly.

speculativeresearchmedium cost
Set aside 3% of grant budgets to replicate findings before translation

Before spending millions to turn a lab finding into a drug, spend a little to have an independent lab check it is real. Funders would reserve a small slice of money for exactly this.

early clinicalengineeringlarge cost
Shared modular GMP facilities for academic personalised vaccines and cell products

Personalised cancer vaccines and cell therapies need a factory for each patient. Shared, automated production units serving many academic hospitals would let universities run these trials without building their own plants.

speculativeresearchmedium cost
Two-year translational fellowships that pay scientists to develop their own discovery

Postdocs who discover something promising usually have to leave it behind when their contract ends. A fellowship would pay them for two years to turn it into a candidate drug or diagnostic, with mentors from industry.

Key papers

6top
methodsNature 2021
AlphaFold 2: predicting protein structures to near-experimental accuracy

The shape of nearly every protein is now available to any researcher in seconds instead of years, which shortens the path from a cancer target to a designed molecule. It does not by itself produce drugs: binding pockets, dynamics and cellular context still need experiment.

meta analysiseLife 2021
Reproducibility Project: Cancer Biology found that landmark preclinical results mostly shrank or vanished on replication

Many exciting laboratory findings that motivate drug programmes are weaker or less reliable than published, which helps explain the high failure rate of drugs entering clinical trials. It argues for pre-registration, detailed methods, data sharing and independent replication before major translational investment.

basicCell 2017
Defining a Cancer Dependency Map: which genes each cancer cell line cannot live without

DepMap is the lookup table drug hunters use to ask: which cancers would die if we blocked this gene, and how would we recognise them? It generated targets such as WRN and PRMT5-MTAP now in clinical trials, and it is public.

translationalNew England Journal of Medicine 2014changed practice
Maude 2014: CD19 CAR-T cells produce complete remission in 27 of 30 children and adults with relapsed ALL

This paper is the proof-of-concept for a living drug: a single infusion of a patient's own engineered T cells could eradicate leukaemia that had survived chemotherapy, transplant and antibody therapy. It defined cytokine release syndrome and its antidote, tocilizumab, and revealed antigen-loss relapse. It led directly to the first approved gene-modified cell therapy three years later.

translationalNew England Journal of Medicine 2001changed practice
First imatinib trial: a pill that switched off the enzyme driving chronic myeloid leukaemia

Druker's 2001 imatinib paper turned the idea of hitting a cancer's specific molecular engine into a working medicine. For people with CML it began the shift from a fatal disease treated with interferon or transplant to one managed with a daily tablet. It also set expectations, later tempered, that every cancer might have its own imatinib.

basicScience 1996
Leach, Krummel and Allison: releasing the CTLA-4 brake makes mice reject tumours

Every checkpoint inhibitor, from ipilimumab to pembrolizumab, rests on this idea: the immune system can already recognise cancer and just needs its brakes released. It changed the goal of immunotherapy from vaccinating against tumours to unleashing existing T cells.

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A commons of shelved cancer drugs with their full data, open to new hypothesesA diversified royalty pool that finances academic phase 1 trials across fifty assetsA fast IND-enabling fund that pays for toxicology and manufacturing in eight weeksA fund for prospective validation of academic biomarkers and companion diagnosticsA funded organoid and PDX panel as the go/no-go gate before IND-enabling moneyA global first-in-human network for academic cancer trials with single ethics reviewA machine-readable taxonomy of why cancer drugs failA national non-profit contract research organisation for academic oncology trialsA non-profit pharmaceutical company for the cancers markets ignoreA non-profit phase 1b combination unit that any drug owner can useA phase 0 fund to test academic compounds in humans with microdoses and imagingA pragmatic trial network for intraoperative margin tools, paid on margin reductionA pre-competitive consortium to validate or kill academic targets before licensingA public indemnity pool so universities can sponsor first-in-human cancer trialsA public registry of stalled academic assets and shelved company compoundsA public-benefit phase 1 factory that takes academic discoveries into first-in-human trialsA shared compound library that rare cancer researchers can actually useA short pre-surgery drug window as the default early test of new agentsA translation fund for academic surgical devices and radiotherapy technologyA university cyclotron network with shared regulatory files for new tracersAn independent replication institute that re-tests key preclinical cancer findings before trialsAn open engineering platform for academic ADCs and bispecificsAn open model bank for the rare tumours nobody has models forAutomatic offer of shelved cancer assets to non-profits after two yearsForty-eight-hour small grants for bold experiments in neglected cancersGovernment reinsurance for phase 2 failures of first-in-class cancer drugsHospital-exemption cell therapies at scale, backed by a shared registryHospital-funded protected time for clinician-scientists, repaid by trial revenueIndependent replication of the key experiment before first-in-human academic trialsMilestone-based venture philanthropy with royalties recycled into the pipelineMulti-centre randomised animal trials before committing to a human trialPaid independent statistical review for preclinical papers that inform trialsPet dogs with spontaneous cancer as a bridge before human trialsPublic cell-therapy foundries at cancer centres for academics and start-upsPublic co-investment in first-in-class phase 1 with a royalty returnRegional translational institutes with academic GMP suites and IND teamsScale up public drug development that takes academic assets to phase 1Self-driving laboratories that run the cancer biology hypothesis loop autonomouslySet aside 3% of grant budgets to replicate findings before translationShared modular GMP facilities for academic personalised vaccines and cell productsTwo-year translational fellowships that pay scientists to develop their own discovery

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