OnCo
ideasIdea

A diversified royalty pool that finances academic phase 1 trials across fifty assets

Investors will not back a single university drug because most fail. A fund that finances fifty of them at once in exchange for a small slice of each one's future royalties spreads the risk enough to attract capital.

A financing vehicle, modelled on Royalty Pharma and the research-backed obligation proposals of Andrew Lo and colleagues, that funds IND-enabling and phase 1 costs for a large portfolio of academic oncology assets in return for a percentage of future licensing revenue on each. Diversification across many uncorrelated assets makes the expected return investable even at high individual failure rates. Universities contribute assets and receive most of the upside; the pool handles project management through the translational institutes and non-profit CRO. Portfolio size is the key variable and would be set by modelling with real attrition data.

Hypothesis
A pool of fifty academic assets financed to phase 1 produces licensing revenue sufficient to return investors' capital within twelve years in the base case, and doubles the proportion of academic oncology assets reaching phase 1 in participating universities.
Rationale
Lo's megafund analysis shows that portfolios of 50 to 150 early assets can achieve investment-grade risk profiles; Royalty Pharma's model demonstrates appetite for royalty streams; university tech transfer income is highly concentrated in a few winners, which is exactly the distribution diversification exploits.
What would test it
Model with historical academic attrition and licensing data, then raise a pilot pool of $200 million across twenty universities and report progression and revenue at years five and ten.
Maturity
speculative
Who has to act
industry
Cost to try
Large (over $50M)
Years to first evidence
5
Bottlenecks it attacks

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