Government reinsurance for phase 2 failures of first-in-class cancer drugs
Investors avoid genuinely new cancer drugs because most fail in mid-stage trials. A public insurance scheme would repay part of the loss when a first-in-class drug fails honestly, making the bet worth taking.
A publicly-backed reinsurance pool that pays a fraction (for example 40%) of documented phase 2 trial costs back to sponsors of qualifying first-in-class oncology programmes when the trial fails on pre-registered efficacy criteria, with a premium paid by participants and conditions on data disclosure (the failure must be published with full data within twelve months). This directly lowers the risk premium that steers capital toward follow-on assets, and produces a public record of negative results as a by-product. Export credit agencies and crop insurance are analogous risk-sharing designs; the biotech-specific precedent is milestone-based grant funding by CPRIT and BARDA.
- Incentives reward me-too drugs and marginal gains · The system pays the same for a drug that adds two months as for a cure, so companies race to copy rather than to cure.
- The valley of death between lab and product · Most academic discoveries die before anyone tests them in people because nobody funds the middle step.
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not linked directly; found by shared links- IdeaA diversified royalty pool that finances academic phase 1 trials across fifty assets
Shares Public co-investment in first-in-class phase 1 with a royalty return, The valley of death between lab and product, Incentives reward me-too drugs and marginal gains.
- IdeaA public registry of stalled academic assets and shelved company compounds
Shares A single oncology trial data trust with mandatory deposit within eighteen months, The valley of death between lab and product.
- IdeaA billion-dollar prize for the first durable cure of a lethal metastatic cancer
Shares Milestone prizes for first-in-class mechanisms reaching human proof of concept, Incentives reward me-too drugs and marginal gains.
- IdeaA fast IND-enabling fund that pays for toxicology and manufacturing in eight weeks
Shares Public co-investment in first-in-class phase 1 with a royalty return, The valley of death between lab and product.
- PersonBrian Druker
Shares The valley of death between lab and product, Incentives reward me-too drugs and marginal gains.
- IdeaA non-profit pharmaceutical company for the cancers markets ignore
Shares The valley of death between lab and product, Incentives reward me-too drugs and marginal gains.