OnCo
bottlenecksBottleneck

Prevention we already have is not deployed

Around four in ten cancers are preventable with tools we already own: vaccines, tobacco control, weight, alcohol, sun and infection control.

About 40% of cancer cases and nearly half of cancer deaths in high-income countries are attributable to modifiable risk factors, tobacco above all, followed by excess body weight, alcohol, infections, diet, inactivity and ultraviolet exposure. Proven interventions exist for most of them: HPV vaccination (a single dose is now WHO-endorsed) can eliminate cervical cancer as a public health problem; hepatitis B vaccination and hepatitis C treatment prevent liver cancer; Helicobacter pylori eradication reduces gastric cancer; tobacco taxation, plain packaging and smoke-free laws are the most cost-effective measures in all of medicine; aspirin halves colorectal cancer in Lynch syndrome carriers. Yet global HPV coverage remains well below target, tobacco still kills more than eight million people a year, and prevention receives a small share of cancer research and health spending. The bottleneck is political, financial and organisational rather than scientific.

criticalprevention detection51 ideas to fix it
How big the problem is
42% of cases, 45% of deaths
Share of US cancer cases and deaths attributable to potentially modifiable risk factors (2014)
~15%
Girls worldwide fully vaccinated against HPV by 2019
More than 8 million
Deaths caused by tobacco each year worldwide
HR 0.56
Reduction in colorectal cancer with daily aspirin in Lynch syndrome carriers at 10 years (CAPP2, per-protocol)
Root causes
  • Prevention benefits accrue decades later and to no identifiable individual, so it attracts less political and commercial investment than treatment.
  • Tobacco, alcohol and food industries lobby against effective regulation.
  • Vaccine hesitancy and misinformation depress HPV and hepatitis B coverage.
  • Health systems and research funders are organised around treatment of disease rather than population health.
  • Prevention interventions have no patent, so no sponsor pays for their trials or promotion.
What is already being tried
  • The WHO Cervical Cancer Elimination Initiative sets 90-70-90 targets (vaccination, screening, treatment) for 2030, and WHO endorsed single-dose HPV schedules in 2022.
  • Gavi finances HPV vaccine introduction in low-income countries, with a target of vaccinating 86 million girls by 2025.
  • The WHO Framework Convention on Tobacco Control and MPOWER measures (taxation, smoke-free laws, plain packaging) are implemented in most countries to varying degrees.
  • CAPP2 and CAPP3 define aspirin chemoprevention in Lynch syndrome, and NICE recommends aspirin for carriers.
  • Population H. pylori screen-and-treat programmes in Taiwan, Japan and Korea are reducing gastric cancer incidence.
  • IARC Monographs and the IARC World Cancer Report provide the evidence base for carcinogen regulation.
What breaking it looks like
Global HPV vaccination coverage exceeds 90% of girls, adult smoking prevalence falls below 5% in high-income countries and is declining everywhere, and age-standardised incidence of cervical, liver, gastric and tobacco-related cancers falls measurably in registry data.

Ideas to fix it

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speculativepolicylarge cost
A delivery-science moonshot for prevention we already own

Around four in ten cancers are preventable with tools that exist now. This would fund the hard, unglamorous work of getting vaccines, screening and tobacco control to everyone, paid on results.

early clinicalresearchmedium cost
A dose-finding trial for exercise after cancer

CHALLENGE proved exercise works in colon cancer but not how much is needed. A trial comparing doses, as we would for a drug, would tell health systems what to fund.

early clinicalresearchlarge cost
A frameshift neoantigen vaccine for Lynch syndrome carriers as the first preventive cancer vaccine approval

People with Lynch syndrome have a very high lifetime cancer risk from a predictable set of mutations. Vaccinate them against those shared mutations before cancer appears.

early clinicalresearchmedium cost
A pragmatic trial of statins to prevent liver cancer in people with cirrhosis

People with cirrhosis have a high risk of liver cancer, and those who happen to take statins seem to get it less often. A proper trial would settle whether statins should be prescribed for prevention.

early clinicalindustrylarge cost
A randomised trial of a shared-antigen vaccine to prevent Lynch syndrome cancers

Lynch syndrome tumours share predictable mutations the immune system can target. A vaccine in early trials could be tested to see if it prevents polyps and cancers in carriers.

speculativepolicymedium cost
A single 'cancer check at 60' appointment bundling all screening tests

People are invited separately for bowel, breast, cervical and lung screening and many miss some. One appointment offering all eligible tests, plus a risk assessment, would raise uptake.

being tested at scaleclinicmedium cost
A swallowable sponge test for reflux patients, offered in pharmacies

A pill on a string collects cells from the food pipe and finds Barrett's oesophagus, a precursor of cancer. Offering it in pharmacies to people on long-term heartburn drugs would find it early.

early clinicalindustrymedium cost
A therapeutic vaccine to clear cervical precancer without surgery

Precancer is treated by cutting away part of the cervix, which raises pregnancy risks. A vaccine that makes the immune system clear the infected cells would avoid surgery.

early clinicalindustrylarge cost
A trial of GLP-1 weight-loss drugs with cancer as the primary outcome

Obesity raises the risk of 13 cancers. Weight-loss drugs are now widely used; a large trial should test whether they actually prevent cancer, not just diabetes and heart disease.

early clinicalphilanthropylarge cost
A vaccine against H. pylori for children in high-risk regions

A childhood vaccine against the stomach bacterium behind most stomach cancer would prevent infection for life. One trial in China showed protection; the idea has stalled.

speculativepolicylarge cost
A whole-population cancer interception programme: risk-stratify every adult, detect and intercept early

Instead of separate screening programmes for a few cancers, assess every adult's overall cancer risk and offer blood tests, imaging and preventive treatment tuned to that risk, all inside one system that learns.

early clinicalindustrylarge cost
An Epstein-Barr virus vaccine to prevent nasopharyngeal cancer and lymphomas

EBV infects almost everyone and causes nasopharyngeal cancer, some lymphomas and some stomach cancers. A vaccine given before infection could remove those cancers.

early clinicalclinicmedium cost
Antibiotic-resistance testing from a stool sample before treating H. pylori

H. pylori eradication often fails because of antibiotic resistance. A stool DNA test showing which antibiotics will work would raise cure rates and protect antibiotics.

being tested at scalepolicysmall cost
Ban commercial sunbeds

Sunbeds cause melanoma, especially when used young. Australia and Brazil have banned them. Other countries should follow and measure the effect.

speculativepolicysmall cost
Ban life and disability insurers from using genetic results

Fear of losing insurance stops many people having genetic tests. Extending non-discrimination law to life and disability cover, as Canada has, would remove that fear.

being tested at scalepolicysmall cost
Cancer warnings on alcohol labels, evaluated as a natural experiment

Most people do not know alcohol causes seven cancers. Ireland is putting cancer warnings on bottles; other countries should follow and measure the effect on drinking.

speculativepolicymedium cost
Catch-up HPV vaccination for men to prevent throat cancer

HPV throat cancer now exceeds cervical cancer in some countries and mostly affects men, who were not vaccinated. Vaccinating men up to 45 could reduce it.

early clinicalpayermedium cost
Community pharmacies as one-stop cancer prevention hubs

Pharmacies are everywhere and open late. They could give HPV vaccines, hand out bowel test kits, run stop-smoking clinics and offer HPV self-sampling under one roof.

being tested at scalepolicymedium cost
Community-tailored HPV vaccine confidence campaigns with school-based delivery

The HPV vaccine prevents most cervical cancer, but false safety claims have cut uptake in several countries. Rebuild confidence locally and deliver the vaccine in schools.

preclinical evidenceresearchmedium cost
Controlled feeding trials to separate ultra-processing from calories

We do not know whether ultra-processed food raises cancer risk because it makes people fat, or because of something in the food itself. Feeding volunteers matched diets for a few weeks and measuring cancer-relevant biology can tell the two apart.

being tested at scalepolicymedium cost
Cure hepatitis C in prisons and drug services, and enrol the cured in liver cancer surveillance

Hepatitis C is now curable in weeks. Testing and treating where it is concentrated, and keeping those with scarring in surveillance afterwards, would cut liver cancer.

being tested at scalepolicylarge cost
Eliminate infection-caused cancers: HPV, hepatitis B and C, H. pylori and EBV

About one in eight cancers is caused by an infection we can vaccinate against, cure or eradicate. A concerted global programme could make those cancers rare within a generation.

being tested at scalepolicysmall cost
Evaluate alcohol minimum unit pricing against cancer incidence

Scotland and Wales put a floor under the price of alcohol. Deaths from liver disease have already fallen. Cancer takes longer to show, so someone has to keep measuring for a decade.

speculativedatasmall cost
Evaluate clean-air policies using lung cancer in never-smokers

Air pollution causes lung cancer in people who never smoked. Clean air zones and coal phase-outs should be tracked against never-smoker lung cancer rates.

being tested at scaleclinicsmall cost
Every lung screening visit includes stop-smoking medicine, opt-out

Lung screening is a teachable moment. Giving cessation medicine and support by default at every scan, unless the person opts out, roughly doubles quit rates.

being tested at scalepolicylarge cost
Family-based H. pylori test-and-treat to prevent stomach cancer

Stomach cancer is largely caused by a bacterium that spreads in households. Testing and treating whole families, not individuals, would stop reinfection and prevent cancer.

being tested at scaleclinicsmall cost
Get every Lynch syndrome carrier onto the right dose of aspirin

Aspirin roughly halves bowel cancer in Lynch syndrome, and a dose trial is defining how little is needed. Most carriers are still not prescribed it; the task is to fix prescribing.

early clinicalresearchmedium cost
GLP-1 drugs to reverse endometrial precancer in women with obesity

Womb precancer in women with obesity is usually treated with a hormone coil or hysterectomy. Weight-loss drugs might reverse it and protect fertility.

being tested at scalepolicymedium cost
HPV self-testing with same-day treatment as the national cervical programme

Women can collect their own sample for the virus that causes cervical cancer; those who test positive can be treated the same day with a simple heat device. Done nationally, this could eliminate a disease that still kills hundreds of thousands of women a year.

early clinicaldatasmall cost
Link bariatric and GLP-1 registries to cancer registries in every country that has both

Millions of people have had weight-loss surgery or now take weight-loss drugs. Linking those records to cancer registries would show, cancer by cancer, how much reversing obesity prevents, for almost no cost.

early clinicalclinicsmall cost
Low-dose tamoxifen for high-risk women, prescribed by pharmacists and nurses

A 5 mg tamoxifen dose halves breast cancer recurrence after precancer with far fewer side effects than the full dose. Almost nobody is prescribed it. Change who can prescribe.

speculativepolicysmall cost
Make a two-minute mouth cancer check part of every dental visit

Dentists see the mouth more than any doctor. A standard, recorded oral cancer examination with a referral route would catch cancers earlier at almost no cost.

being tested at scaleregulatorsmall cost
Make cigarettes non-addictive by capping their nicotine

Cigarettes with nicotine cut by 95% do not sustain addiction. A mandatory cap, which the FDA has proposed, could cut smoking dramatically.

speculativepolicymedium cost
Mandatory radon testing when homes are sold, with subsidised mitigation

Radon gas from the ground is the second biggest cause of lung cancer. Testing every home at sale and paying for fixes in high-radon areas would prevent thousands of cases.

being tested at scalepolicysmall cost
Minimum alcohol pricing evaluated with cancer endpoints

Scotland's minimum price per unit cut alcohol deaths. Tracking alcohol-related cancer incidence over the next decade would show whether it also prevents cancer.

early clinicalclinicmedium cost
Offer HPV vaccination to women when they come for cervical screening or treatment

Adult women who missed the vaccine could get it at their screening visit. Vaccination around treatment for precancer also seems to cut recurrence.

early clinicalpayermedium cost
Offer the blood test for bowel cancer only to people who refuse stool tests or colonoscopy

Blood tests for bowel cancer miss most precancerous polyps, so they should not replace stool tests. But for the third of people who never do any screening, a blood test may beat nothing.

speculativeresearchlarge cost
One master trial for cancer prevention drugs across many precancers

Prevention trials are slow and run separately. A shared platform trial across precancers like Barrett's, oral leukoplakia, lung nodules and pancreatic cysts would test many drugs faster.

speculativepayermedium cost
Pay insurers and health systems for cancers prevented and caught early

Health systems earn from treating cancer, not preventing it. Paying them for lower cancer incidence and earlier stage in their population would flip the incentive.

being tested at scalepolicylarge cost
Population germline screening for hereditary cancer genes with cascade testing

Most people carrying a high-risk cancer gene do not know it until someone in the family gets cancer. Offer testing to all adults so carriers can be protected before that happens.

being tested at scalepolicymedium cost
Post every woman an HPV self-test kit instead of asking her to book a smear

Many women never book a smear test. Sending a self-sampling kit by post, as the Netherlands and Australia do, reaches them and is just as accurate.

being tested at scalepolicysmall cost
Put cytisine, a cheap plant-based quit-smoking pill, on every essential medicines list

Cytisine costs a few dollars per course and works about as well as varenicline, but is unavailable in most countries. Global approval and procurement would make quitting affordable.

speculativeregulatorsmall cost
Regulators accept shrinking of precancer as the endpoint for prevention drug approval

Few companies develop cancer prevention drugs because trials take decades. If regulators accepted validated precancer endpoints, as they do cholesterol for heart disease, industry would return.

being tested at scaleclinicsmall cost
Remove the fallopian tubes during any pelvic surgery once childbearing is finished

Most ovarian cancers start in the fallopian tubes. Removing the tubes at hysterectomy, or instead of tying them, as British Columbia has done, appears to prevent ovarian cancer.

being tested at scalepolicylarge cost
Same-day HPV test and heat treatment of precancer by nurses in low-income settings

Where women cannot return for results, test for HPV and treat any precancer the same day with a battery-powered heat probe. This is the fastest route to WHO's cervical elimination target.

being tested at scalepolicysmall cost
Send screening invitations with a pre-booked time, not a request to call

Uptake rises when the invitation comes with a booked appointment and text reminders. Make that the default in every screening programme.

being tested at scalepolicysmall cost
Smoke-free generation laws with a built-in evaluation across countries

Banning tobacco sales to anyone born after a set year, as the UK is doing, could end smoking within a generation. Adopting countries should coordinate evaluation so the evidence is undeniable.

speculativepayermedium cost
Social impact bonds for cancer prevention, repaid from avoided treatment costs

Investors would fund vaccination and screening campaigns up front and be repaid by health systems only if the campaigns hit verified targets, turning future savings into money for prevention now.

being tested at scalepolicylarge cost
Switch every country to single-dose HPV vaccination and add catch-up to age 26

One dose of HPV vaccine protects as well as two or three. Halving the doses frees supply to vaccinate far more girls, boys and young adults.

being tested at scalepolicymedium cost
Take lung screening scanners to supermarket car parks in the poorest areas

People most at risk of lung cancer are least likely to attend hospital screening. Manchester showed mobile scanners in car parks reach them. Make this the default model.

being tested at scalepolicylarge cost
Treat everyone with chronic hepatitis B to prevent liver cancer

Hepatitis B causes most liver cancer worldwide, and cheap tablets suppress it. Treating everyone infected, not just those with liver damage, would prevent many cancers.

What relieves it today

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Key papers

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rctNew England Journal of Medicine 2025changed practice
CHALLENGE: a structured exercise programme after chemotherapy improves survival in colon cancer

For colon cancer survivors, a prescribed, supported exercise programme is now an evidence-based treatment with a survival benefit comparable to many drugs. Health systems will need to fund exercise consultants as they fund chemotherapy. The trial does not tell us whether unsupervised advice achieves the same.

rctNew England Journal of Medicine 2022
NordICC: inviting people to a screening colonoscopy reduced bowel cancer, but less than expected

A colonoscopy probably does reduce bowel cancer risk for the person who has it, but a programme that offers colonoscopy achieves much less if most people decline. Programmes based on stool tests with high uptake may deliver as much population benefit at lower cost and risk.

observationalLancet Oncology 2021
Alcohol caused an estimated 741,000 cancers worldwide in 2020

There is no safe level of alcohol for cancer risk, and the risk is highest for cancers of the mouth, throat, oesophagus, liver, bowel and breast. Public awareness is low; most people do not know alcohol causes breast cancer. Warning labels and minimum pricing are the policy levers being debated.

observationalThe Lancet 2021changed practice
England's HPV programme: cervical cancer down 87% in the first cohort vaccinated at 12-13

School-based vaccination at 12-13 with high uptake nearly abolishes cervical cancer in vaccinated cohorts, even with a vaccine covering only two HPV types. Screening intervals and the future of cervical screening can now be redesigned around vaccination status.

rctThe Lancet 2020changed practice
CAPP2: two years of aspirin cuts bowel cancer in Lynch syndrome by more than a third over 10 years

People with Lynch syndrome should be offered daily aspirin, which roughly halves bowel cancer risk with a delayed and durable effect. Whether a lower dose (as tested in CAPP3) is as effective, and whether the finding extends to the general population, are separate questions.

translationalClinical Cancer Research 2020
First trial of a vaccine against the shared neoantigens of mismatch-repair-deficient cancers

Because Lynch syndrome tumours make the same abnormal proteins in almost every patient, a single vaccine could in principle be given to carriers before cancer develops. This small trial showed the concept is safe and immunogenic; whether it prevents cancer requires the randomised trials now being planned.

observationalNew England Journal of Medicine 2020changed practice
Swedish registry study: HPV vaccination almost eliminates cervical cancer when given before 17

Vaccinating girls before they are exposed to HPV prevents most cervical cancers. Catch-up vaccination in young adults still helps, but less. Combined with HPV screening, elimination of cervical cancer as a public health problem is a realistic goal.

meta analysisBMJ 2018changed practice
Self-collected HPV samples are as accurate as clinician samples and reach women who never attend screening

Women can collect their own screening sample at home with no loss of accuracy if the laboratory uses a PCR test. Sending kits directly is the most effective way to reach women who do not attend, which matters because most cervical cancers occur in under-screened women.

reviewNew England Journal of Medicine 2016changed practice
IARC verdict: excess body fat causes 13 cancers

Maintaining a healthy weight is now established cancer prevention for over a dozen cancer types. For clinicians and policymakers, obesity belongs alongside tobacco and alcohol in prevention strategy. Whether intentional weight loss in adulthood reverses risk is still being studied, including in trials of GLP-1 drugs.

rctLancet Oncology 2015changed practice
IBIS-I: five years of tamoxifen keeps preventing breast cancer for at least 20 years

For women at raised risk, a 5-year course of tamoxifen offers long-lasting protection against the commonest kind of breast cancer. Uptake is low because of side effects and fear of rare serious harms; low-dose tamoxifen (TAM-01) is now being tested to improve the balance. It has not been shown to save lives.

rctJAMA Internal Medicine 2015
PREDIMED: a Mediterranean diet with extra-virgin olive oil and fewer breast cancers

A Mediterranean dietary pattern rich in olive oil may lower breast cancer risk, and it is safe and good for the heart anyway. The evidence is suggestive, not definitive, because of the small number of cancers; it should not be presented as proven cancer prevention.

rctNew England Journal of Medicine 2011changed practice
NLST: yearly low-dose CT scans cut lung cancer deaths in heavy smokers

For people with a heavy smoking history, an annual low-dose CT scan is one of the few screening tests proven to reduce cancer deaths. Most abnormal scans are not cancer, so screening must be paired with careful nodule management. It does not apply to never-smokers or light smokers.

observationalJAMA 2010changed practice
PROSE consortium: preventive surgery lowers cancer and death in BRCA1 and BRCA2 carriers

For women who carry a BRCA mutation, preventive removal of the ovaries and tubes saves lives, and preventive mastectomy almost eliminates breast cancer. These are the strongest prevention effects in oncology, which is why finding carriers before they develop cancer matters so much.

observationalBMJ 2004changed practice
Fifty years of the British Doctors Study: smokers lose ten years of life, quitting gives most of it back

Smoking is the single largest preventable cause of cancer death, and quitting at any age helps, with the greatest gain from quitting young. Cessation support belongs in every cancer service, including lung screening programmes.

rctNew England Journal of Medicine 1993changed practice
Minnesota trial: a yearly stool blood test cuts bowel cancer deaths by a third

A cheap home stool test, repeated yearly or every two years and followed by colonoscopy when positive, prevents bowel cancer deaths. This is what national bowel screening programmes do today, with FIT replacing the older guaiac test.

observationalBMJ 1950changed practice
Doll and Hill 1950: the case-control study that tied smoking to lung cancer

Doll and Hill's 1950 study is where the evidence that smoking causes cancer begins. Everything from cigarette warnings and tax to smoke-free laws and lung screening eligibility descends from this study and the cohort that followed it.

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A delivery-science moonshot for prevention we already ownA dose-finding trial for exercise after cancerA frameshift neoantigen vaccine for Lynch syndrome carriers as the first preventive cancer vaccine approvalA pragmatic trial of statins to prevent liver cancer in people with cirrhosisA randomised trial of a shared-antigen vaccine to prevent Lynch syndrome cancersA single 'cancer check at 60' appointment bundling all screening testsA swallowable sponge test for reflux patients, offered in pharmaciesA therapeutic vaccine to clear cervical precancer without surgeryA trial of GLP-1 weight-loss drugs with cancer as the primary outcomeA vaccine against H. pylori for children in high-risk regionsA whole-population cancer interception programme: risk-stratify every adult, detect and intercept earlyAn Epstein-Barr virus vaccine to prevent nasopharyngeal cancer and lymphomasAntibiotic-resistance testing from a stool sample before treating H. pyloriBan commercial sunbedsBan life and disability insurers from using genetic resultsCancer warnings on alcohol labels, evaluated as a natural experimentCatch-up HPV vaccination for men to prevent throat cancerCommunity pharmacies as one-stop cancer prevention hubsCommunity-tailored HPV vaccine confidence campaigns with school-based deliveryControlled feeding trials to separate ultra-processing from caloriesCure hepatitis C in prisons and drug services, and enrol the cured in liver cancer surveillanceEliminate infection-caused cancers: HPV, hepatitis B and C, H. pylori and EBVEvaluate alcohol minimum unit pricing against cancer incidenceEvaluate clean-air policies using lung cancer in never-smokersEvery lung screening visit includes stop-smoking medicine, opt-outFamily-based H. pylori test-and-treat to prevent stomach cancerGet every Lynch syndrome carrier onto the right dose of aspirinGLP-1 drugs to reverse endometrial precancer in women with obesityHPV self-testing with same-day treatment as the national cervical programmeLink bariatric and GLP-1 registries to cancer registries in every country that has bothLow-dose tamoxifen for high-risk women, prescribed by pharmacists and nursesMake a two-minute mouth cancer check part of every dental visitMake cigarettes non-addictive by capping their nicotineMandatory radon testing when homes are sold, with subsidised mitigationMinimum alcohol pricing evaluated with cancer endpointsOffer HPV vaccination to women when they come for cervical screening or treatmentOffer the blood test for bowel cancer only to people who refuse stool tests or colonoscopyOne master trial for cancer prevention drugs across many precancersPay insurers and health systems for cancers prevented and caught earlyPopulation germline screening for hereditary cancer genes with cascade testingPost every woman an HPV self-test kit instead of asking her to book a smearPut cytisine, a cheap plant-based quit-smoking pill, on every essential medicines listRegulators accept shrinking of precancer as the endpoint for prevention drug approvalRemove the fallopian tubes during any pelvic surgery once childbearing is finishedSame-day HPV test and heat treatment of precancer by nurses in low-income settingsSend screening invitations with a pre-booked time, not a request to callSingle-dose HPV vaccination plus HPV self-sampling to reach WHO elimination in low-income countriesSmoke-free generation laws with a built-in evaluation across countriesSocial impact bonds for cancer prevention, repaid from avoided treatment costsSwitch every country to single-dose HPV vaccination and add catch-up to age 26Take lung screening scanners to supermarket car parks in the poorest areasTreat everyone with chronic hepatitis B to prevent liver cancer

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