OnCo
ideasIdea

Make cigarettes non-addictive by capping their nicotine

Cigarettes with nicotine cut by 95% do not sustain addiction. A mandatory cap, which the FDA has proposed, could cut smoking dramatically.

Randomised trials show very-low-nicotine cigarettes reduce consumption and increase quitting. The FDA issued a proposed product standard in January 2025. Propose finalisation and adoption by other regulators, with pre-planned surveillance of compensatory smoking, illicit trade, and switching to alternatives.

Hypothesis
A nicotine cap reduces adult smoking prevalence by at least 30% within five years of implementation.
Rationale
Addiction requires nicotine; supply-side product standards avoid relying on individual behaviour change.
What would test it
Adoption in one jurisdiction with synthetic-control evaluation of prevalence and sales.
Maturity
being tested at scale
Who has to act
regulator
Cost to try
Small (under $1M)
Years to first evidence
5
Bottlenecks it attacks

Connected

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