OnCo
ideasIdea

Smoke-free generation laws with a built-in evaluation across countries

Banning tobacco sales to anyone born after a set year, as the UK is doing, could end smoking within a generation. Adopting countries should coordinate evaluation so the evidence is undeniable.

The UK Tobacco and Vapes Bill implements a rising age of sale; New Zealand repealed its version in 2024. Propose an international consortium pre-registering outcome measures (smoking initiation by birth cohort, illicit market share, retail compliance) and using synthetic-control designs.

Hypothesis
A rising age of sale reduces smoking prevalence among the first affected birth cohorts by at least half relative to synthetic controls within five years.
Rationale
Age-of-sale laws already reduce initiation (Tobacco 21 in the US); a generational ban progressively removes the peer-supply loophole.
What would test it
Pre-registered synthetic-control evaluation.
Maturity
being tested at scale
Who has to act
policy
Cost to try
Small (under $1M)
Years to first evidence
6
Bottlenecks it attacks

Key papers

2top

Connected

6top

Pages like this

not linked directly; found by shared links