OnCo
bottlenecksBottleneck

Not enough oncologists, nurses, pathologists, physicists

The number of people with cancer is rising faster than the workforce trained to treat them.

Cancer incidence is rising with ageing populations while the workforce that delivers care is growing slowly, ageing itself and burning out. ASCO projected a shortfall of more than 2,000 US oncologists by 2025; the US and Canadian pathologist workforce shrank by about a sixth between 2007 and 2017 while case complexity rose; radiotherapy physicists, radiation therapists and oncology nurses are short even in wealthy systems; and in many low- and middle-income countries a single oncologist serves thousands of new patients a year. Training pipelines take a decade, maldistribution concentrates specialists in cities, and burnout affects around half of oncologists. Every other bottleneck, from trial enrolment to genomic testing to palliative care, is rate-limited by people. Task-shifting, advanced practice roles, AI triage and reporting, tele-oncology and international training programmes are the levers.

majoraccess delivery47 ideas to fix it
How big the problem is
2,258 full-time equivalents
Projected US shortage of oncologists by 2025 (ASCO workforce model)
-17.5%
Change in the US pathologist workforce 2007-2017
44.7%
US oncologists reporting at least one symptom of burnout (2013 survey)
Root causes
  • Specialist training takes ten or more years and training places have not expanded with demand.
  • Ageing of the workforce and early retirement, accelerated by burnout, remove capacity faster than it is replaced.
  • Specialists concentrate in cities and high-income countries, leaving rural and poor regions unserved.
  • Administrative burden, electronic record documentation and prior authorisation consume clinical time.
  • Pathology and physics are under-recruited because they are less visible and, in some systems, less well paid.
What is already being tried
  • The NHS Long Term Workforce Plan (2023) commits to expanding training places, including in oncology and diagnostics.
  • The WHO Global Strategy on Human Resources for Health: Workforce 2030 sets targets for health workforce density.
  • AI tools for mammography triage (Lunit, and the MASAI trial), pathology screening (Paige, PathAI) and radiotherapy auto-contouring extend the reach of scarce specialists.
  • Advanced practice providers and oncology pharmacists take on follow-up, toxicity management and survivorship visits.
  • The ESMO/ASCO Global Curriculum and the IAEA training programmes standardise oncology and physics training internationally.
  • Project ECHO and tele-oncology models connect community clinicians to specialist centres for case review.
What breaking it looks like
Oncology, pathology, nursing and physics workforce growth keeps pace with incidence in every region, burnout prevalence falls below a quarter, and no country has fewer than one oncologist per 500 new cancer cases.

Ideas to fix it

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early clinicalengineeringsmall cost
A chatbot for pre-test genetic counselling so counsellors see only who needs them

There are far too few genetic counsellors. A validated chatbot can do the standard pre-test education, leaving people with complex needs for humans.

early clinicalclinicmedium cost
A dietitian in every gastrointestinal and head and neck tumour board

Malnutrition is the commonest untreated complication in cancers of the gut, throat and pancreas. Putting a dietitian in the meeting where treatment is decided means it is seen and treated before chemotherapy starts, not after weight has been lost.

early clinicalresearchmedium cost
A randomised trial of AI scribes in oncology clinics measuring errors and time

AI tools that write clinic notes are spreading fast in cancer clinics. Test them properly: do they save time, do they make mistakes about drugs and doses, and do patients notice a difference?

speculativeresearchmedium cost
A randomised trial of AI-generated treatment recommendations versus tumour boards

Test head to head whether an AI that reads the record and the evidence recommends treatments as well as a panel of experts, and whether patients do as well.

being tested at scaleclinicmedium cost
A same-week expert second opinion for every rare cancer diagnosis

Rare cancers are often misdiagnosed, which sends patients down the wrong treatment path. Digital slide sharing could get every case to an expert within days.

being tested at scaleregulatorsmall cost
Advanced-practice radiation therapists doing contouring and on-treatment reviews

Radiation therapists, the staff who deliver daily treatment, can be trained to outline normal organs on scans and to review patients during treatment, work that oncologists now do.

early clinicalclinicmedium cost
AI clears the normal lung screening scans so radiologists read only the suspicious ones

Most screening CT scans are normal. Letting a validated AI clear them, and sending only flagged scans to a radiologist, would let screening scale without more radiologists.

early clinicaldatamedium cost
AI-first reading for high-volume common cancer diagnoses, pathologist for the exceptions

Let validated AI make the first read on routine, high-volume samples like cervical smears and standard breast biopsy stains, so scarce pathologists spend their time on the difficult cases.

early clinicalengineeringmedium cost
Ambient AI note-taking to give oncologists back a day a week

Oncologists spend hours a day typing notes. Software that listens to the consultation and drafts the note, the letter and the orders could return that time to seeing patients.

early clinicalpolicymedium cost
An 18-month oncology track for clinical officers and physician associates

Training a specialist doctor takes ten years or more. Mid-level clinicians can be trained in eighteen months to run protocol-based cancer care under supervision, and there are far more of them.

speculativedatasmall cost
An open global model of cancer workforce supply and demand by country

No one knows exactly how many oncologists, nurses, physicists and pathologists each country has or needs. A public, regularly updated model would let governments plan training and spot shortfalls years ahead.

early clinicalclinicsmall cost
Community health workers trained in cancer triage, navigation and home palliative care

Millions of community health workers already visit homes for vaccines and maternal care. Training them to recognise cancer warning signs, guide patients through the system and support home pain care would reach people no hospital does.

early clinicalpayermedium cost
Community pharmacies as one-stop cancer prevention hubs

Pharmacies are everywhere and open late. They could give HPV vaccines, hand out bowel test kits, run stop-smoking clinics and offer HPV self-sampling under one roof.

early clinicalclinicsmall cost
Credentialed diaspora oncologists staffing remote tumour boards for home-country hospitals

Thousands of oncologists trained in poorer countries now work abroad. A structured programme could let them join weekly video case conferences for hospitals back home, improving decisions at almost no cost.

early clinicalpolicylarge cost
Double oncology capacity in low-resource settings with task-shifting and AI decision support

Many countries have one oncologist for millions of people. Train nurses and general doctors to deliver protocolised cancer care with software checks and remote specialist oversight.

speculativeresearchmedium cost
Every cancer biology PhD begins with a funded replication of a published finding

Make the first project of every doctoral student a careful, published attempt to repeat an important result. Students learn rigour, and the field gets thousands of replications a year.

speculativeclinicsmall cost
Evolutionary tumour boards with a modeller in the room

Cancer is an evolving population, but treatment decisions are rarely made with an evolutionary biologist present. Add one to the weekly meeting and see whether decisions change.

speculativeregulatorsmall cost
Fast-track relicensing for refugee, migrant and returning oncology professionals

Trained cancer doctors and nurses who have fled conflict or moved countries often spend years unable to practise. A short, competency-based route back to work would add capacity quickly.

early clinicalphilanthropymedium cost
Fund investigators from under-represented communities and community sites to lead trials

Patients are more likely to join a trial when the doctor offering it looks like them or works in their community. Funding more such doctors to become trial leaders would change who is enrolled.

speculativeresearchmedium cost
Funded research pathways for surgeon-scientists and radiation oncologist-scientists

Almost no surgeons or radiation oncologists have time or funding to do research. Dedicated training awards with protected time would build the workforce that surgical and radiotherapy trials need.

speculativeclinicmedium cost
Hospital-funded protected time for clinician-scientists, repaid by trial revenue

Doctors who could turn discoveries into trials are buried in clinical work. Hospitals would guarantee them research time and recover the cost from the trials and grants they bring in.

being tested at scalepolicysmall cost
Locally prepared oral morphine solution, licensed for nurse prescribing

Uganda makes liquid morphine from powder in a simple facility and lets trained nurses prescribe it, giving pain relief to patients that no doctor will ever reach. Other countries could copy this within a year.

speculativeclinicsmall cost
Micro-learning pushed to community oncologists within 30 days of a practice change

When a trial changes the standard of care, every oncologist would receive a five-minute, case-based lesson within a month, rather than waiting for the next conference.

being tested at scaleclinicmedium cost
Nurse-led chemotherapy day units with a doctor on a screen

Trained nurses following strict written protocols can safely run chemotherapy clinics for common cancers, with an oncologist available by video for decisions and problems.

being tested at scaleclinicsmall cost
Nurse-led follow-up clinics for survivors, freeing oncologists for active treatment

Most follow-up visits after successful treatment are routine. Nurse practitioners can run them well, giving survivors more time and oncologists more capacity for new patients.

early clinicalphilanthropymedium cost
Offline decision support for generalists treating common cancers in low-resource settings

A phone app that works without internet and guides a general doctor or nurse through diagnosing and treating common cancers with the drugs actually available locally.

early clinicalregulatorsmall cost
Oncology pharmacists as protocol prescribers for supportive care and dose adjustments

Let specially trained cancer pharmacists prescribe anti-sickness drugs, growth-factor support and routine dose adjustments under protocols, freeing oncologists for decisions only they can make.

being tested at scaleclinicsmall cost
Oncology teams order germline tests; tele-genetic counsellors handle the results

There are too few genetic counsellors to see every patient who should have an inherited-risk test. Let the cancer team order the test with a short consent script, and use video counsellors for those with results that matter.

early clinicalengineeringmedium cost
One medical physicist covering many radiotherapy machines through remote quality assurance

Medical physicists, who keep radiotherapy machines accurate and safe, are scarcer than oncologists in many countries. Remote quality checks with local technologists could let one physicist safely oversee several machines.

early clinicalpolicymedium cost
Paid survivor peer-navigators as a recognised health workforce role

Train and pay people who have been through cancer to guide newly diagnosed patients through the system, especially where oncologists and nurses are scarce.

early clinicalclinicmedium cost
Pathologist assistants plus AI triage to multiply pathologist capacity

Much of a pathologist's day is preparation, measuring and describing specimens. Trained assistants can do that, and AI can pre-screen slides, so each pathologist reports far more cancers.

being tested at scaleclinicsmall cost
Project ECHO tele-mentoring for district clinicians managing cancer

Project ECHO is a weekly video class where district doctors and nurses present real cases to a specialist team, learn by doing, and build a network. It worked for hepatitis C and could work for cancer.

early clinicalpolicylarge cost
Radiotherapy for everyone who needs it by 2040

Half of cancer patients need radiotherapy and most of the world cannot get it. Commit to low-cost machines, automated planning and trained staff so that access is universal by 2040.

being tested at scalephilanthropylarge cost
Regional training hubs that produce oncologists, physicists and radiographers in-region

Rather than sending a handful of trainees to Europe or America, build a few large training centres in Africa and South Asia that train the whole team together, with local case mix and local costs.

speculativepolicymedium cost
Retention packages so trained oncology staff stay: bonds, top-ups, working equipment

Many cancer specialists trained in poor countries emigrate. Combine service bonds, salary supplements, guaranteed working equipment and academic time so that staying is a career, not a sacrifice.

being tested at scalepolicysmall cost
Risk-stratified follow-up: low-risk survivors to primary care with fast re-entry

Not every survivor needs to see an oncologist every six months for years. Sort people by recurrence risk, send low-risk survivors back to their family doctor with a clear plan, and guarantee rapid return if something changes.

being tested at scalepolicymedium cost
Roll out AI-supported mammography nationally as a stepped-wedge trial

Sweden's MASAI trial showed AI can safely replace one of two radiologists. Rolling it out region by region in a randomised order would prove it works at national scale and that interval cancers do not rise.

early clinicalengineeringmedium cost
Round-the-clock remote treatment-planning hubs for clinics without physicists

Hospitals without enough physicists could upload scans to a shared planning centre, where AI drafts the treatment plan and remote experts finish and check it within a day.

speculativeengineeringsmall cost
Simulate each hospital's cancer pathway as a queue to find and remove the waits

Hospitals rarely know which step, the scanner, the biopsy, the pathologist or the clinic slot, is causing the queue. Modelling the pathway like a factory line shows where a small change would remove weeks of waiting.

being tested at scaleengineeringmedium cost
Slide scanners in district hospitals wired to pathologists anywhere

Many countries have one pathologist per million people. Putting a slide scanner in each district lab and sending images to a pooled group of pathologists could give a cancer diagnosis in days instead of months.

early clinicalclinicmedium cost
Structured mentorship so district general surgeons perform common cancer operations safely

Surgery cures more cancers than any other treatment, but most district hospitals refer everything to a distant centre. Train and mentor general surgeons to do common cancer operations well, with specialists checking results.

early clinicalclinicsmall cost
Toxicity-management decision support for nurses and pharmacists

Give the nurses and pharmacists who take patients' calls a tool that walks them through recognising and managing side effects of modern cancer drugs, including when to escalate.

early clinicalphilanthropysmall cost
Train and fund oncology clinicians as public content creators

Give oncologists and cancer nurses the training, time and production support to reach people where they actually get information, on social video and podcasts.

speculativeresearchmedium cost
Two-year translational fellowships that pay scientists to develop their own discovery

Postdocs who discover something promising usually have to leave it behind when their contract ends. A fellowship would pay them for two years to turn it into a candidate drug or diagnostic, with mentors from industry.

being tested at scaleregulatormedium cost
Validate and reimburse AI contouring and planning to expand radiotherapy capacity

Drawing targets and planning radiotherapy takes hours of scarce expert time. Properly tested AI could do much of it, letting the same staff treat far more patients, if regulators and payers set clear rules for proving and paying for it.

being tested at scalepayersmall cost
Video palliative care as an equivalent default option for patients far from a team

A large trial showed that palliative care delivered by video works as well as in person for people with advanced lung cancer. Payers should cover it so that distance from a hospital no longer decides who gets it.

being tested at scalepatientssmall cost
Volunteer-led neighbourhood palliative networks, the Kerala model, adapted elsewhere

In Kerala, trained community volunteers, backed by nurses and doctors, provide most home palliative care to the dying. The model reaches more people at lower cost than any clinic-based service and could be copied.

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A chatbot for pre-test genetic counselling so counsellors see only who needs themA dietitian in every gastrointestinal and head and neck tumour boardA randomised trial of AI scribes in oncology clinics measuring errors and timeA randomised trial of AI-generated treatment recommendations versus tumour boardsA same-week expert second opinion for every rare cancer diagnosisAdvanced-practice radiation therapists doing contouring and on-treatment reviewsAI clears the normal lung screening scans so radiologists read only the suspicious onesAI-first reading for high-volume common cancer diagnoses, pathologist for the exceptionsAmbient AI note-taking to give oncologists back a day a weekAn 18-month oncology track for clinical officers and physician associatesAn open global model of cancer workforce supply and demand by countryCommunity health workers trained in cancer triage, navigation and home palliative careCommunity pharmacies as one-stop cancer prevention hubsCredentialed diaspora oncologists staffing remote tumour boards for home-country hospitalsDouble oncology capacity in low-resource settings with task-shifting and AI decision supportEvery cancer biology PhD begins with a funded replication of a published findingEvolutionary tumour boards with a modeller in the roomFast-track relicensing for refugee, migrant and returning oncology professionalsFund investigators from under-represented communities and community sites to lead trialsFunded research pathways for surgeon-scientists and radiation oncologist-scientistsHospital-funded protected time for clinician-scientists, repaid by trial revenueLocally prepared oral morphine solution, licensed for nurse prescribingMicro-learning pushed to community oncologists within 30 days of a practice changeNurse-led chemotherapy day units with a doctor on a screenNurse-led follow-up clinics for survivors, freeing oncologists for active treatmentOffline decision support for generalists treating common cancers in low-resource settingsOncology pharmacists as protocol prescribers for supportive care and dose adjustmentsOncology teams order germline tests; tele-genetic counsellors handle the resultsOne medical physicist covering many radiotherapy machines through remote quality assurancePaid survivor peer-navigators as a recognised health workforce rolePathologist assistants plus AI triage to multiply pathologist capacityProject ECHO tele-mentoring for district clinicians managing cancerRadiotherapy for everyone who needs it by 2040Regional training hubs that produce oncologists, physicists and radiographers in-regionRetention packages so trained oncology staff stay: bonds, top-ups, working equipmentRisk-stratified follow-up: low-risk survivors to primary care with fast re-entryRoll out AI-supported mammography nationally as a stepped-wedge trialRound-the-clock remote treatment-planning hubs for clinics without physicistsSimulate each hospital's cancer pathway as a queue to find and remove the waitsSlide scanners in district hospitals wired to pathologists anywhereStructured mentorship so district general surgeons perform common cancer operations safelyToxicity-management decision support for nurses and pharmacistsTrain and fund oncology clinicians as public content creatorsTwo-year translational fellowships that pay scientists to develop their own discoveryValidate and reimburse AI contouring and planning to expand radiotherapy capacityVideo palliative care as an equivalent default option for patients far from a teamVolunteer-led neighbourhood palliative networks, the Kerala model, adapted elsewhere

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key papers

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