OnCo
ideasIdea

Simulate each hospital's cancer pathway as a queue to find and remove the waits

Hospitals rarely know which step, the scanner, the biopsy, the pathologist or the clinic slot, is causing the queue. Modelling the pathway like a factory line shows where a small change would remove weeks of waiting.

Discrete-event simulation and queueing analysis are standard in manufacturing and logistics but rarely applied to cancer diagnostic pathways, where a mismatch between weekly clinic capacity and scanner slots can create long waits that no single department sees. A reusable model fed by routine timestamp data would locate the binding constraint per pathway and quantify the effect of interventions before they are made.

Hypothesis
Hospitals using pathway simulation to target interventions will reduce the referral-to-treatment interval for at least two tumour pathways by 25% within a year, at lower cost than untargeted capacity expansion.
Rationale
Operations research routinely finds that a small number of constraints determine throughput and that adding capacity elsewhere achieves nothing; cancer pathways have the same structure.
What would test it
Apply the model in five hospitals, implement the top recommendation in each, and measure interval change against five matched hospitals.
Maturity
speculative
Who has to act
engineering
Cost to try
Small (under $1M)
Years to first evidence
1
Bottlenecks it attacks

Connected

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