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Radical oncology: what could change the war by 2035

Radical oncology is a horizon map of the wilder ideas in cancer, sorted by how close they are to mattering, with the reason each one might never arrive.

Most of what is celebrated as a breakthrough is an incremental gain on an existing modality. This roadmap collects the ideas that would change the shape of treatment rather than its slope: therapies that read DNA directly, living drugs, radiation delivered in milliseconds, and detection that runs continuously rather than annually.

The grouping is by horizon, from technologies already producing randomised data to ideas with no human evidence at all. Placement reflects the state of evidence in September 2026, not company timelines. Several steps will not happen: the failure record of hypoxia-activated prodrugs, metabolic therapy, and matrix-softening agents is a reminder that a clean mechanism is not a clinical benefit.

Steps

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  1. Now (randomised data exists)current

    Ideas already being tested against a control arm

    Microbiome modulation, spatially fractionated radiotherapy, sonodynamic therapy in glioblastoma, GDF-15 blockade for cachexia, and repurposed cheap drugs all have randomised or registrational trials running in 2026. These are the frontier ideas closest to a guideline: each has a defined population, a comparator, and a readout inside a few years. Cachexia therapy is the likeliest first approval in a domain with no approved drug at all.

  2. By 2027 (early clinical, readouts imminent)emerging

    Living drugs, logic gates, and designed proteins reach decision points

    Engineered bacteria, logic-gated cell therapies, molecular glue platforms, and de novo designed binders all have first-in-human programmes running. The question each faces is the same: does the elegant mechanism survive contact with a heterogeneous human tumour? Expect most to disappoint on response rate while establishing safety, which is how bispecific antibodies and ADCs also began.

  3. By 2030 (physics and chemistry maturing)emerging

    Radiation and radiopharmaceuticals get a second act

    Auger emitters, contained alpha nanogenerators, proton arc delivery, and very-high-energy electrons are all limited today by engineering rather than biology: isotope supply, daughter recoil, gantry speed, and dosimetry at ultra-high dose rate. Those are tractable problems with capital behind them. If FLASH sparing is real in humans, deep FLASH by electron or proton arc would be the largest change to radiotherapy since intensity modulation.

  4. By 2030 (detection and decision-making)emerging

    Monitoring becomes continuous and selection becomes spatial

    Fragmentomics, breath analysis, and near-continuous ctDNA sampling all push detection from an annual event towards a running signal, while spatial omics and organoid testing push treatment choice from genotype towards phenotype and architecture. The gating question for every one of them is not sensitivity but utility: acting earlier has to change outcomes, and no randomised trial has yet shown that for continuous monitoring.

  5. By 2035 (needs a delivery breakthrough)speculative

    Writing to the genome and the epigenome inside a tumour

    In vivo base and prime editing, epigenetic silencing, antibody-oligonucleotide conjugates, and programmable DNA-targeting drugs share one blocker: getting a large, charged molecule into most cells of a solid tumour. Liver-directed editing is already in the clinic, so the chemistry works; the tumour delivery problem has resisted thirty years of effort. If it is solved, undruggable drivers such as MYC and TP53 loss become addressable and much of this roadmap is rewritten.

  6. By 2035 (attacking the host, not the tumour)speculative

    Treating the soil rather than the seed

    Stromal CAR-T, nerve blockade, senescence clearance, mechanical decompression, and targeting the tumour's own microbes all treat the environment a cancer needs rather than the cancer itself. The attraction is that the host does not mutate. The risk is visible in the record: PEGPH20 failed, FAP CAR-T caused cachexia in mice, and broad antibiotics blunt immunotherapy. Success here probably requires far better spatial measurement first.

  7. Speculative (no human evidence)speculative

    Ideas that are still physics and mouse data

    DNA origami nanorobots, phage-based delivery, and quantum-dot imaging agents have striking preclinical demonstrations and no clinical footprint. They belong on the map because the failure modes are known and specific, nuclease degradation, rapid clearance, heavy-metal toxicity, rather than vague. Any of them could move a horizon if a single delivery or materials problem is solved.

Probability ranges are named estimates that the claim is borne out on roughly a five-year horizon. They are meant to be argued with: propose a revision with your name and reasoning via a pull request to src/data/confidence.ts.

Story

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Now (randomised data exists)currentstep 1 of 7

Ideas already being tested against a control arm

Microbiome modulation, spatially fractionated radiotherapy, sonodynamic therapy in glioblastoma, GDF-15 blockade for cachexia, and repurposed cheap drugs all have randomised or registrational trials running in 2026. These are the frontier ideas closest to a guideline: each has a defined population, a comparator, and a readout inside a few years. Cachexia therapy is the likeliest first approval in a domain with no approved drug at all.

By 2027 (early clinical, readouts imminent)emergingstep 2 of 7

Living drugs, logic gates, and designed proteins reach decision points

Engineered bacteria, logic-gated cell therapies, molecular glue platforms, and de novo designed binders all have first-in-human programmes running. The question each faces is the same: does the elegant mechanism survive contact with a heterogeneous human tumour? Expect most to disappoint on response rate while establishing safety, which is how bispecific antibodies and ADCs also began.

By 2030 (physics and chemistry maturing)emergingstep 3 of 7

Radiation and radiopharmaceuticals get a second act

Auger emitters, contained alpha nanogenerators, proton arc delivery, and very-high-energy electrons are all limited today by engineering rather than biology: isotope supply, daughter recoil, gantry speed, and dosimetry at ultra-high dose rate. Those are tractable problems with capital behind them. If FLASH sparing is real in humans, deep FLASH by electron or proton arc would be the largest change to radiotherapy since intensity modulation.

By 2030 (detection and decision-making)emergingstep 4 of 7

Monitoring becomes continuous and selection becomes spatial

Fragmentomics, breath analysis, and near-continuous ctDNA sampling all push detection from an annual event towards a running signal, while spatial omics and organoid testing push treatment choice from genotype towards phenotype and architecture. The gating question for every one of them is not sensitivity but utility: acting earlier has to change outcomes, and no randomised trial has yet shown that for continuous monitoring.

By 2035 (needs a delivery breakthrough)speculativestep 5 of 7

Writing to the genome and the epigenome inside a tumour

In vivo base and prime editing, epigenetic silencing, antibody-oligonucleotide conjugates, and programmable DNA-targeting drugs share one blocker: getting a large, charged molecule into most cells of a solid tumour. Liver-directed editing is already in the clinic, so the chemistry works; the tumour delivery problem has resisted thirty years of effort. If it is solved, undruggable drivers such as MYC and TP53 loss become addressable and much of this roadmap is rewritten.

By 2035 (attacking the host, not the tumour)speculativestep 6 of 7

Treating the soil rather than the seed

Stromal CAR-T, nerve blockade, senescence clearance, mechanical decompression, and targeting the tumour's own microbes all treat the environment a cancer needs rather than the cancer itself. The attraction is that the host does not mutate. The risk is visible in the record: PEGPH20 failed, FAP CAR-T caused cachexia in mice, and broad antibiotics blunt immunotherapy. Success here probably requires far better spatial measurement first.

Speculative (no human evidence)speculativestep 7 of 7

Ideas that are still physics and mouse data

DNA origami nanorobots, phage-based delivery, and quantum-dot imaging agents have striking preclinical demonstrations and no clinical footprint. They belong on the map because the failure modes are known and specific, nuclease degradation, rapid clearance, heavy-metal toxicity, rather than vague. Any of them could move a horizon if a single delivery or materials problem is solved.

Connected

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fronts

4

technologies

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Alpha-emitter nanogenerators and daughter trappingAntibody-oligonucleotide conjugatesAuger-electron therapyBacteriophage-based tumour deliveryBreath and volatile-organic-compound detectionCachexia-directed therapy (GDF-15 blockade)CAR-T against stroma: fibroblasts and myeloid cellsChronotherapy: timing treatment to the body clockContinuous and near-continuous ctDNA monitoringDe novo designed protein bindersDigital twins and virtual control armsDNA origami nanorobotsEngineered bacteria as living cancer drugsEngineered exosomes as drug carriersEpigenetic editing (durable gene silencing)Histotripsy as an immune primerHypoxia-activated prodrugsIn situ vaccinationIn vivo base and prime editing for cancerLattice and GRID radiotherapyLogic-gated therapeutics (AND, NOT gates)Magnetic nanoparticle hyperthermiaMetabolic therapy: starving the tumour of a nutrientMicrobiome modulation to unlock immunotherapyMolecular glue discovery platformsN-of-1 and rapid platform trialsOrganoid-guided therapy at scalePhotothermal (plasmonic) nanoparticle ablationProgrammable DNA-targeting therapeuticsProton arc therapyQuantum-dot and molecular ultrasound imaging agentsRadiodynamic therapy and radiosensitising nanoparticlesRadioligand plus DNA-repair inhibitor combinationsSelf-amplifying and circular RNA therapeuticsSenolytics and senescence-directed therapySonodynamic therapySpatial-omics-guided treatment selectionSystematic drug repurposingTargeting the tumour's own microbesTargeting tumour mechanics and pressureTotal-body PET for screening and ultra-low-dose imagingTrained innate immunityVery-high-energy electron therapy

pathways

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