An open forecasting tournament on which combination trials will succeed
Ask experts and models to predict, in public, which registered combination trials will meet their endpoint. Track who is right, and use the best forecasters to decide what to fund.
Forecasting tournaments (Good Judgment Project, the replication-prediction markets in psychology) show that aggregated, scored predictions outperform committees. Applying this to registered oncology combination trials would create a calibrated prior for each combination, expose which mechanistic arguments actually predict success, and give funders a quantitative tool for prioritisation.
- Too many combinations to test · There are thousands of possible drug pairs and sequences. Trials can test a few dozen a year.
- Funding follows fashion, not burden · Money goes to the cancers and questions that are easy or popular, not the ones that kill most or where a dollar would do most.
Pages like this
not linked directly; found by shared links- IdeaStop failing trials earlier with pre-registered aggressive futility rules
Shares ClinicalTrials.gov, Funding follows fashion, not burden.
- IdeaOne ethics approval and one consent form for a platform trial across countries
- IdeaShared concurrent control arms across sponsors' trials in the same setting
- IdeaAn annual map of high-burden questions that nobody is funding
Shares ClinicalTrials.gov, Funding follows fashion, not burden.
- IdeaA public atlas of drug-pair responses across a thousand patient-derived organoids
Shares An open engine that ranks every drug pair by predicted synergy before anyone runs a trial, Too many combinations to test.
- IdeaPatient-derived organoids to pick ADC payloads
Shares An open engine that ranks every drug pair by predicted synergy before anyone runs a trial, Too many combinations to test.
- CollectionDrugBank & ChEMBL
Shares An open engine that ranks every drug pair by predicted synergy before anyone runs a trial, Too many combinations to test.
- CollectionDepMap (Cancer Dependency Map)
Shares An open engine that ranks every drug pair by predicted synergy before anyone runs a trial, Too many combinations to test.