OnCo
ideasIdea

Payers fund trials of cheaper, shorter or lower-dose versions of expensive treatments

Health insurers and national health systems have every reason to find out whether half the dose or half the duration of a costly drug works as well. They would fund those trials directly and keep the savings.

Payers commission pragmatic randomised trials of dose reduction, shorter duration, extended dosing intervals, stopping rules and cheaper alternatives for high-cost oncology drugs, embedded in routine care with registry endpoints. No manufacturer will run these; academic groups lack money. Precedents include the UK's REFINE-Lung (reduced-frequency pembrolizumab), the Netherlands' payer-supported trials of lower-dose abiraterone and dose-reduced ibrutinib, and the Dutch SONIA trial on CDK4/6 sequencing, whose savings dwarfed its cost. A standing payer trials fund with a savings-reinvestment rule would make this systematic.

Hypothesis
A payer trials fund of $50 million a year yields treatment-modification results whose first-year savings exceed the fund's total cost, without loss of efficacy in non-inferiority designs, for at least two of the first five trials.
Rationale
SONIA showed that deferring CDK4/6 inhibitors saved months of toxicity and large costs with no survival difference; dose-optimisation trials of abiraterone with food and of ibrutinib have shown equivalence at a fraction of the dose. Payer-funded research is standard in some countries (ZonMw in the Netherlands, NIHR HTA in the UK) but rare in oncology elsewhere.
What would test it
Establish the fund in one system, run five pragmatic trials with pre-specified savings estimates, and audit realised savings versus fund cost after four years.
Maturity
early clinical
Who has to act
payer
Cost to try
Medium ($1M to $50M)
Years to first evidence
4
Bottlenecks it attacks
  • Incentives reward me-too drugs and marginal gains · The system pays the same for a drug that adds two months as for a cure, so companies race to copy rather than to cure.
  • Wrong doses · Most drug doses were chosen as the highest a person can tolerate, which is often more than they need.
  • Prices and value · New cancer drugs routinely cost over $150,000 a year, often for months of benefit. Systems cannot afford them and patients go bankrupt.

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