OnCo
ideasIdea

Make clonal clearance, not tumour shrinkage, a trial endpoint

A drug that shrinks a tumour by half but leaves the resistant sub-population untouched will fail. Trials should measure whether every sub-population is cleared, not just overall size.

Response criteria (RECIST) measure bulk diameter; ctDNA endpoints measure total variant allele fraction. Neither captures whether all subclones are suppressed. A clonal clearance endpoint, defined as undetectable plasma signal for every baseline-identified subclone at a fixed timepoint, could be validated as a surrogate and used in early-phase trials to distinguish drugs that shrink from drugs that eradicate.

Hypothesis
Clonal clearance at 12 weeks predicts progression-free survival better than RECIST response or bulk ctDNA clearance, and drugs that achieve it more often produce longer durations of response in later trials.
Rationale
Bulk response is dominated by the largest clone; durable benefit depends on the smallest resistant clone. The measurement is now feasible with multi-region baseline tissue and deep plasma sequencing.
What would test it
Retrospective validation on serial plasma from two completed targeted-therapy trials with baseline multi-region tissue; if predictive, propose to regulators as an exploratory endpoint for phase 2.
Maturity
speculative
Who has to act
regulator
Cost to try
Medium ($1M to $50M)
Years to first evidence
4
Bottlenecks it attacks

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