OnCo
ideasIdea

A global medical isotope supply observatory with forecasts and shortage alerts

Nobody publishes how much cancer isotope is made, where, or when supply will fall short. A public observatory would let hospitals and investors plan.

Supply and demand for lutetium-177, actinium-225, iodine-131 and their precursors are opaque; producers guard volumes, and shortages surface only when clinics cancel doses. The proposal is an observatory, hosted by the IAEA or OECD NEA with WHO, that collects confidential production and capacity data from producers under aggregation rules, publishes quarterly supply-demand balances and five-year forecasts, and issues shortage alerts to clinics and regulators. It would also track trial-stage demand so producers can invest ahead of approvals.

Hypothesis
Publication of forecasts is followed by earlier capacity investment decisions (measured by announced projects relative to forecast shortfalls) and a fall in unanticipated clinic-level shortages within three years.
Rationale
Transparent supply data (as in energy and food markets) reduce boom-bust investment and allow health systems to plan; the molybdenum-99 experience showed that opaque supply led to repeated crises.
What would test it
Establish the observatory for lutetium-177 first, publish two years of quarterly balances, and evaluate accuracy of forecasts and changes in shortage reports.
Maturity
speculative
Who has to act
data
Cost to try
Small (under $1M)
Years to first evidence
2
Bottlenecks it attacks

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technologies

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Radioligand therapy (beta emitters)Targeted alpha therapy

bottlenecks

2
Data silosManufacturing cost and time for living and radioactive medicines