OnCo
ideasIdea

A coordinated reserve and shared schedule for the world's medical isotope reactors

A handful of ageing research reactors make most cancer isotopes. Coordinating their maintenance and funding reserve capacity would prevent the shortages that stop treatments.

Lutetium-177, iodine-131 and molybdenum-99 depend on a few research reactors (HFR Petten, BR2, MARIA, SAFARI-1, OPAL, several in Russia and the US), most over 50 years old. The OECD Nuclear Energy Agency's High-Level Group on Medical Radioisotopes coordinated molybdenum-99 after the 2009-10 crisis. The proposal is to extend that model formally to therapeutic isotopes: shared outage scheduling, an agreed reserve capacity margin funded by a per-dose levy, and public co-financing of the next generation of producers (PALLAS in the Netherlands, accelerator-based SHINE, new irradiation positions in existing reactors).

Hypothesis
Coordinated scheduling and reserve capacity reduce clinic-reported therapeutic isotope shortage weeks by at least 80% and keep lutetium-177 spot prices stable during planned reactor outages.
Rationale
The molybdenum-99 experience showed that coordination, not new physics, ended a supply crisis; therapeutic isotopes now face the same concentration of supply with faster-growing demand.
What would test it
Publish a shared outage calendar and reserve-margin target for lutetium-177 producers within a year; track clinic-reported dose cancellations and prices against the prior three years.
Maturity
early clinical
Who has to act
policy
Cost to try
Large (over $50M)
Years to first evidence
5
Bottlenecks it attacks

Connected

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