OnCo
termsTerm

Pre-specified vs post-hoc analysis

aka pre-specified, prespecified, pre-planned, prespecified analysis, pre-specified analysis, post-hoc, post hoc, post-hoc analysis, post-hoc subgroup, retrospective analysis, unplanned analysis, exploratory, exploratory analysis, hypothesis-generating, hypothesis generating, nominal, nominal P value, nominally significant, data dredging, p-hacking, statistical analysis plan, protocol-specified, pre-registered, pre-registration, preregistered, registered report, trial registration, ClinicalTrials.gov registration

Whether an analysis was planned and written down before the data were seen (pre-specified) or invented afterwards (post-hoc). Post-hoc findings, especially in subgroups, are prone to be chance and count as hypotheses for a new trial, not as evidence.

Trial protocols and statistical analysis plans, registered in advance (ClinicalTrials.gov, EU CTR), list the endpoints, populations and tests that will count; regulators approve on pre-specified analyses and treat post-hoc results as exploratory with 'nominal' P values. Post-hoc subgroup analyses have produced both misleading claims (retrospective PD-L1 cut-offs) and genuine discoveries later confirmed (KRAS wild-type for cetuximab). Pre-registration is standard in clinical trials and the site's ideas argue for extending it to animal studies and to 'silent trial' evaluations of AI, where the lack of pre-registration is a known source of false positives.

Category
Trials & regulation

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