OnCo
ideasIdea

Live tracker of the lag from first approval to real availability in every country

A drug approved in the US may take five years to reach a patient in Poland or never reach Nigeria. A live public tracker would show exactly where and why it is stuck.

EFPIA's W.A.I.T. indicator covers Europe annually; nothing comparable exists for Asia, Latin America or Africa, and none tracks the steps between approval and reimbursed availability. The proposal is an automated, open tracker that ingests regulatory decisions, HTA outcomes and reimbursement lists for every oncology drug in at least 60 countries and shows the stage at which each drug is stalled: not filed, under review, approved but not reimbursed, reimbursed with restrictions.

Hypothesis
Countries whose lag data are published see faster median approval-to-reimbursement intervals within three years, and sponsors file earlier in countries shown to be 'not filed' outliers.
Rationale
Non-filing by sponsors, not slow regulators, is the main cause of unavailability in many middle-income countries; attributing delay correctly directs pressure to the right party.
What would test it
Prototype the tracker for 30 oncology drugs in 40 countries using public sources, validate against manual audits, and publish; measure filing behaviour over the following two years.
Maturity
speculative
Who has to act
data
Cost to try
Small (under $1M)
Years to first evidence
2
Bottlenecks it attacks

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